Cross-posted from Erin Bromage’s blog. Dr. Bromage, an Associate Professor of Biology at the University of Massachusetts Dartmouth, has written an article explaining in easy-to-understand, ordinary English how the Coronavirus is spread. The article was posted a few days ago and as of May 11 has been read almost 10 million times. If you’re confused about what to do and how to do it, this will help.
“It seems many people are breathing some relief, and I’m not sure why. An epidemic curve has a relatively predictable upslope and once the peak is reached, the back slope can also be predicted. We have robust data from the outbreaks in China and Italy, that shows the backside of the mortality curve declines slowly, with deaths persisting for months. Assuming we have just crested in deaths at 70k, it is possible that we lose another 70,000 people over the next 6 weeks as we come off that peak. That’s what’s going to happen with a lockdown.
As states reopen, and we give the virus more fuel, all bets are off. I understand the reasons for reopening the economy, but I’ve said before, if you don’t solve the biology, the economy won’t recover.”